Major Nelson Parking©: The Case for Why Google and Facebook Might Disappear in the Next 5 Years

01 May 2012

The Case for Why Google and Facebook Might Disappear in the Next 5 Years

Here's Why Google and Facebook Might Completely Disappear in the Next 5 Years - Forbes

In the tech world, we’ve really had 3 generations:

Web 1.0 (companies founded from 1994 – 2001, including Netscape, Yahoo! (YHOO), AOL (AOL), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY)),
Web 2.0 or Social (companies founded from 2002 – 2009, including Facebook (FB), LinkedIn (LNKD), and Groupon (GRPN)),
and now Mobile (from 2010 – present, including Instagram).

In an article over at Forbes, Eric Jackson presents the case of how the evolution of technology would make Google and Facebook, as is, obsolete. Cynics are pointing out that Facebook thinks this too and made the decision for an IPO while the going is still good.

He points out: "With each succeeding generation in tech, it seems the prior generation can’t quite wrap its head around the subtle changes that the next generation brings. Web 1.0 companies did a great job of aggregating data and presenting it in an easy to digest portal fashion. Google did a good job organizing the chaos of the Web better than AltaVista, Excite, Lycos and all the other search engines that preceded it. Amazon did a great job of centralizing the chaos of e-commerce shopping and putting all you needed in one place.
Facebook is also probably facing a tough road ahead as this shift to mobile happens. As Hamish McKenzie said last week, “I suspect that Facebook will try to address that issue [of the shift to mobile] by breaking up its various features into separate apps or HTML5 sites: one for messaging, one for the news feed, one for photos, and, perhaps, one for an address book. But that fragments the core product, probably to its detriment.”
Considering how long Facebook dragged its feet to get into mobile in the first place, the data suggests they will be exactly as slow to change as Google was to social. Does the Instagram acquisition change that? Not really, in my view. It shows they’re really fearful of being displaced by a mobile upstart. However, why would bolting on a mobile app to a Web 2.0 platform (and a very good one at that) change any of the underlying dynamics we’re discussing here? I doubt it."

A tag cloud (a typical Web 2.0 phenomenon in itself) presenting Web 2.0 themes. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/04/30/heres-why-google-and-facebook-might-completely-disappear-in-the-next-5-years/

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Why Major Nelson Parking?

No. This is not a blog about driving or parking, although I might occasionally take note of automobiles. Most often the topic is about Marketing; business, marketing psychology, finance, Social Media technology. Occasionally I'll indulge writing about popular culture the arts. The title is a reference from pop culture."Major Nelson Parking" is my way of explaining the optimal situation. It refers to the practice of a 1960s sitcom character who went to work each morning at NASA. Although his military rank was only that of a Major, he was somehow allowed to park his car at the busy front steps of NASA headquarters. As he would jump out of his car and dash, everyone else, including Generals and other higher ranking persons, were apparently walking in from that big parking lot somewhere off-camera.
What he had was a kind of parking nirvana that broke all the rules but seemed to be totally cool with everyone else... even the fire department.
So "Major Nelson Parking", in terms of a blog, is the breaking all marketing rules that would dictate doing a "niche audience" blog. Instead the blog will veer off to any place that looks of interest and park some thoughts on it... (but without blocking fire access). It's akin to a 20th century general interest magazine...the kind of publication that thrived when Major Nelson was traveling to that unlikely parking spot.